Everybody's got their something when it comes to making a friendly wager. And while March Madness is a couple weeks away, I'm getting the jump early with my annual bid to score some bucks on the side: the office Oscar pool. Now when it comes to predicting the winners, I can afford to toot my own horn for a change since I remain undefeated for the past 4 years. This time around, there's the obvious frontrunners in the lead acting categories... but sorting out who will reign triumphant has been perplexing me all week long. AMPAS could go misty-eyed, opting for Peter O'Toole and leave Forest Whitaker fumbling towards incoherance. Abigail Breslin could turn J-Hud's Cinderella carriage into a pumpkin, or Clint Eastwood may send Martin Scorsese home empty handed again after all. Do I sip from the spiked Kool-Aid surrounding the feel good indie that could, Little Miss Sunshine or does box office muscle give The Departed an inside edge? I've decided to go with my gut and hope my instincts don't fail me down the homestretch. Consider me on pins and needles wondering whether I'll be a few thou richer by night's end. My ballot looks a bit like such:



Best Picture:

Should win: Babel
Will win: The Departed

Best Actor:

Should win: Forest Whitaker, The Last King Of Scotland
Will win: Forest Whitaker, The Last King Of Scotland

Best Actress:

Should win: Helen Mirren, The Queen
Will win: Helen Mirren, The Queen

Best Supporting Actor:

Should win: Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Will win: Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls

Best Supporting Actress:

Should win: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Will win: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls

Best Director:

Should win: Clint Eastwood, Letters From Iwo Jima
Will win: Martin Scorsese, The Departed

Best Original Screenplay:

Should win: Babel
Will win: Little Miss Sunshine

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Should win: Borat
Will win: The Departed

Best Animated Feature:

Should win: Happy Feet
Will win: Happy Feet

Best Documentary Feature:

Should win: An Inconvenient Truth
Will win: An Inconvenient Truth

Foreign Language Film:

Should win: Pan's Labyrinth
Will win: The Lives Of Others

Best Costume Design:

Should win: The Devil Wears Prada
Will win: Marie Antoinette

Best Original Song:

Should win: I Need To Wake Up from An Inconvenient Truth
Will win: Listen from Dreamgirls

Labels: award shows, nominations, Oscars

"Everybody comes to Hollywood
They wanna make it in the neighborhood
They like the smell of it in Hollywood
How could it hurt you when it looks so good..." - Madonna

The Academy Awards are the pièce de résistance of the awards season, where everyone involved in the film industry sits in a big room, pretends to be interested in riveting categories like Best Sound Editing and wonders how many Santeria offerings does it take to keep Jennifer Lopez perpetually RSVP'd. All in the name of a bedraggled golden gigolo who's banged any and every sleaze that's had money, given out countless, totally undeserved mercy fucks, and occasionally rubbed elbows with the truly worthy. The time has finally arrived for eager Oscar hopefuls to be roused from slumber, groggy from the remnants of coke still caked around their nostrils and hold their breath for that annual slice of 5:30 AM Pacific Time magic. The chosen few spend the rest of the day fielding carefully rehearsed reaction from press scribes far too willing to keep the golden shower of congratulations going, while the snubbed valiantly try to save face through gritted teeth since the Plan B excuse of "it's an honor just to be nominated" in the humble pie handbook need not apply.

Here's how out of control the shameless studio campaigning has spiraled into. Dreamgirls was practically anointed as the film to beat long before curtains rose on the NY/LA/San Fran $25 preview circuit and it wound up not even in striking distance of any of the A-list categories. Diana Ross is breathing a sigh of relief that the check paid to AMPAS cleared in the nick of time.

The former frontrunners at Paramount & DreamWorks find themselves oddly juxtaposed between euphoria and being brutally rebuffed at the For Your Consideration roundtable, becoming the only Best Picture shutout to ever receive the most nominations in its year. This supposed snub is, presumably, a result of the latent prejudice of Hollywood in general. Many of these racial snubs in the past reek of bullshit by the powers that be, but this time around? Let's pipe down the paranoia. How else to explain inclusions of Forest Whitaker, Will Smith, Djimon Hounsou, Eddie Murphy, Jennifer Hudson, Rinko Kikuchi & Alejandro González Iñárritu in the same year?

If there is a disappointment, it lies in the inevitable. The script forces the most exciting character offscreen for the sake of giving marquee attraction of Ms. Knowles more camera time. Once J-Hud goes away, most of the energy fizzles out of the picture. The bland-by-numbers Beyoncé just does not and cannot measure up. At least when Hitchcock bumped off Janet Leigh early on, he left us with Tony Perkins to take us the rest of the way home.

The Oscars, like most other big award shows are celebrations of commercial achievement, with the occasional nod to artistic merit. And the award for most pervasive promotional campaign goes to Fox Searchlight for hawking that yellow school bus for 6 months. Your prize is a Best Picture nod.

Best Picture: "Babel," "The Departed," "Letters From Iwo Jima," "Little Miss Sunshine," "The Queen."

Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio, "Blood Diamond," Ryan Gosling, "Half Nelson," Peter O'Toole, "Venus," Will Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness," Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland."

Actress: Penélope Cruz, "Volver," Judi Dench, "Notes on a Scandal," Helen Mirren, "The Queen," Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada," Kate Winslet, "Little Children."

Supporting Actor: Alan Arkin, "Little Miss Sunshine," Jackie Earle Haley, "Little Children," Djimon Hounsou, "Blood Diamond," Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls," Mark Wahlberg, "The Departed."

Supporting Actress: Adriana Barraza, "Babel," Cate Blanchett, "Notes on a Scandal," Abigail Breslin, "Little Miss Sunshine," Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls," Rinko Kikuchi, "Babel."

Directing: Alejandro González Iñárritu, "Babel," Martin Scorsese, "The Departed," Clint Eastwood, "Letters From Iwo Jima," Stephen Frears, "The Queen," Paul Greengrass, "United 93."

Foreign Language Film: "After the Wedding," Denmark, "Days of Glory (Indigenes)," Algeria, "The Lives of Others," Germany, "Pan's Labyrinth," Mexico, "Water," Canada.

Adapted Screenplay: Sacha Baron Cohen and Anthony Hines and Peter Baynham and Dan Mazer and Todd Phillips, "Borat Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan," Alfonso Cuaron and Timothy J. Sexton and David Arata and Mark Fergus and Hawk Ostby, "Children of Men," William Monahan, "The Departed," Todd Field and Tom Perrotta, "Little Children," Patrick Marber, "Notes on a Scandal."

Original Screenplay: Guillermo Arriaga, "Babel," Iris Yamashita and Paul Haggis, "Letters From Iwo Jima," Michael Arndt, "Little Miss Sunshine," Guillermo del Toro, "Pan's Labyrinth," Peter Morgan, "The Queen."

Animated Feature Film: "Cars," "Happy Feet," "Monster House."

Art Direction: "Dreamgirls," "The Good Shepherd," "Pan's Labyrinth," "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest," "The Prestige."

Cinematography: "The Black Dahlia," "Children of Men," "The Illusionist," "Pan's Labyrinth," "The Prestige."

Sound Mixing: "Apocalypto," "Blood Diamond," "Dreamgirls," "Flags of Our Fathers," "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest."

Sound Editing: "Apocalypto," "Blood Diamond," "Flags of Our Fathers," "Letters From Iwo Jima," "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest."

Original Score: "Babel," Gustavo Santaolalla, "The Good German," Thomas Newman, "Notes on a Scandal," Philip Glass, "Pan's Labyrinth," Javier Navarrete, "The Queen," Alexandre Desplat.

Original Song: "I Need to Wake Up" from "An Inconvenient Truth," Melissa Etheridge, "Listen" from "Dreamgirls," Henry Krieger, Scott Cutler and Anne Preven, "Love You I Do" from "Dreamgirls," Henry Krieger and Siedah Garrett, "Our Town" from "Cars," Randy Newman, "Patience" from "Dreamgirls," Henry Krieger and Willie Reale.

Costume Design: "Curse of the Golden Flower," "The Devil Wears Prada," "Dreamgirls," "Marie Antoinette," "The Queen."

Documentary Feature: "Deliver Us From Evil," "An Inconvenient Truth," "Iraq in Fragments," "Jesus Camp," "My Country, My Country."

Documentary (Short Subject): "The Blood of Yingzhou District," "Recycled Life," "Rehearsing a Dream," "Two Hands."

Film Editing: "Babel," "Blood Diamond," "Children of Men," "The Departed," "United 93."

Makeup: "Apocalypto," "Click," "Pan's Labyrinth."

Animated Short Film: "The Danish Poet," "Lifted," "The Little Matchgirl," "Maestro," "No Time for Nuts."

Live Action Short Film: "Binta and the Great Idea (Binta Y La Gran Idea)," "Eramos Pocos (One Too Many)," "Helmer & Son," "The Saviour," "West Bank Story."

Visual Effects: "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest," "Poseidon," "Superman Returns."

Labels: award shows, Hollywood, movies, nominations, Oscars

If, as has been said, one can gauge the health of the industry by the quality of the Grammys, it's far past time to write the obituary of popular music as a means of mass communication.

In all seriousness, how are the Grammy Awards truly relevant in this day and age? Maybe in the pre-iTunes era, when everyone had the same outlet for music — making mixtapes courtesy of timing the pause button just right from the radio and showing up on record release Tuesdays. I'm not playing the I-hate-all-music-that's-popular über snob card, but isn't that who profits the most from payola nominations? It's a foregone conclusion that those nominated aren't really the best out there. It's just weird that in spite of the biz limping on into the sunset, the Grannies still managed to stick around in existence. And nothing is ever groundbreaking, edgy, or God forbid — has some f-bombs thrown in for good measure. I think they also send nominee ballots to Mormon clergy and Murder She Wrote fan club members.

This year's edition continues the tradition of much ado about nothing. I'm thrilled that Mary J. Blige is getting the mainstream respect that's been long overdue and I'm sure they'll be more additions to the mantle since it's official that she's having her best year ever with a field leading 8 nods. Let's just hope James Blunt wins Best New Artist and subsequently disappears. There's nothing the voters love more than a fresh faced ingenue who taps into easygoing soul, so score a huge win for Corinne Bailey Rae. The old geezers at NARAS are getting the Dance/Electronica categories almost right this year. I'm totally tickled pink to see Goldfrapp and Pet Shop Boys on the same ballot. Also pumping my fist on the love shown to Gnarls Barkley, Lupe Fiasco & Kelis. But for every step forward, I've learned to brace myself for the inevitable five steps backward and one sideways. Pharrell's shiteous In My Mind alongside The Roots' Game Theory for Best Rap Album? Surely you jest. Chris Brown instead of the totally deserving Ne-Yo as the Best New Artist of 2006? He's a cute kid and his MJ impersonation is admirable, but come the fuck on. Or better yet, how can voters justify the blatant omission of KT Tunstall? In a year rife with Johnny-come-latelys, the smoky voiced Scot was a welcome addition to the post-Lilith crew of female singer/songwriters. And isn't it time to redefine what a "new artist" is already? It can be titled the Shelby Lynne amendment. I heart Imogen Heap to death, however.... when you've released an album in '98 and were a member of a group that cut a disc in 2002, your record release hymen was broken long, long ago.

Largely overlooked this year were Nelly Furtado, whose inescapable hit "Promiscuous" was banished to the Pop Collaboration by a Duo or Group category, and Bob Dylan, whose Modern Times had been expected to be vie for Album of the Year, but has to settle for a nomination for Best Contemporary Folk/Americana Album.

Biggest upset has to be that Timbaland was snubbed for Producer Of The Year. I guess laminating ghetto passes for former mouseketeers doesn't always have its privileges.

A round up of the major contenders in the big 5 are listed after the jump.

Album of the Year:

Dixie Chicks, Taking The Long Way

Gnarls Barkley, St. Elsewhere

John Mayer, Continuum

Red Hot Chili Peppers, Stadium Arcadium

Justin Timberlake, FutureSex/LoveSounds

Record of the Year:

Mary J. Blige, Be Without You

James Blunt, You're Beautiful

Dixie Chicks, Not Ready To Make Nice

Gnarls Barkley, Crazy

Corinne Bailey Rae, Put Your Records On

Song of the Year:

Be Without You, (performed by Mary J. Blige), written by Blige, Johnta Austin, Bryan-Michael Cox and Jason Perry

Jesus, Take the Wheel, (performed by Carrie Underwood), written by Brett James, Hillary Lindsey and Gordie Sampson

Not Ready To Make Nice, (performed by the Dixie Chicks), written by Martie Maguire, Natalie Maines, Emily Robison and Dan Wilson

Put Your Records On, (performed by Corinne Bailey Rae), written by John Beck, Steve Chrisanthou and Bailey Rae

You're Beautiful, (performed by James Blunt), written by Blunt, Amanda Ghost and Sacha Skarbe

Best New Artist:

James Blunt

Chris Brown

Imogen Heap

Corinne Bailey Rae

Carrie Underwood

Labels: award shows, Grammys, Mary J. Blige, nominations